Our biggest enemy is no longer climate denial but climate delay

Our biggest enemy is no longer climate denial but climate delay

Future generations will look back on the climate events of 2021 and say: “That was the year they ran out of excuses.”

Heatwaves and flooding here in the UK, temperatures topping 50C in Pakistan, hundreds killed by a heatwave in British Columbia, deadly floods in Germany and China. All within a single month. Add to that the recent dire warning from the Met Office that the age of extreme weather has just begun.

The wake-up call that this offers is not just the obvious one: that climate breakdown is already here. It also illustrates that we, in this generation, are in a unique position in the history of this crisis. Climate breakdown can no longer be plausibly denied as a threat etched only in the future. And all too soon, avoiding it may be a luxury lost to the past. The window to avoid catastrophe is closing with every passing day. We’re in the decisive decade in this fight, and we must treat the climate crisis as an issue that stands alone in the combination of its urgency and the shadow it casts over future generations.

The actions we take defy the normal rhythm of political cycles. What we do in the next few years will have effects for hundreds of years to come. Unless the world cuts emissions in half in this decade, we will probably lose the chance to avoid warming of significantly more than the 1.5C set out in the 2015 Paris accord. We have seen the catastrophic effects of a world warmed by just 1.2C. What happens if we get to 2.5 or 3C? By then, we’ll look back at recent summers as not the hottest we’ve ever had but, in all likelihood, the coolest we will ever have again.

The accompanying truth is that our biggest enemy is no longer climate denial but climate delay. The most dangerous opponents of change are no longer the shrinking minority who deny the need for action, but the supposed supporters of change who refuse to act at the pace the science demands. As Bill McKibben, environmentalist and climate scholar, says on climate: “Winning slowly is the same as losing.”

The UK government is a case in point. There is a chasm between the boosterish rhetoric of the Johnson government and the reality. We are way off meeting our climate targets, which are themselves insufficiently ambitious, graded “somewhere below4 out of 10 for delivery by the Climate Change Committee. Nothing is more dangerous than the mirage of action shrouding the truth of inaction, because it breeds either false confidence that we will be OK or cynicism and despair about meaningless political promises.

But why are they failing? Above all, because of a dogged refusal to put government investment at scale behind a green recovery. The more government refuses to provide that proper plan and finance, the harder the decisions on boilers, cars and industrial transition become. A government that absents its responsibility for making these transitions is a government that will fail to make them happen.


This is not simply failing to protect us from the biggest long-term threat we face; it’s economically illiterate too.

The case for investing now is not just clear as a question of intergenerational equity, it’s also the only conclusion to draw from a hard-headed fiscal analysis of the costs and benefits. The Office for Budget Responsibility tells us that the costs of acting early are surprisingly small relative to our national income – in the central scenario, an average annual investment in net terms of just 0.4% of GDP between now and 2050.

Meanwhile, we know that inaction is entirely unaffordable, leaving massive costs of climate damage racked up and left for future generations. The OBR also tells us that delay will significantly raise the cost of action, in part because we are baking high carbon into our infrastructure. We will have to make the transition at some point; failing to act now will betray our children and grandchildren and will just end up costing more.

We should act now not just because we must avoid future generations living in a disaster movie but because rewriting the script can produce a better world. Rapid decarbonisation is the imperative, but we can do so in a way that fixes the inequalities that exist in our current economic system. This is the promise of the Green New Deal – that this transformative programme of investment can also generate good jobs, help existing industries transition and create new ones, ensure warmer homes, cleaner air, and a lasting shift in wealth and power across our country. This is the vision we must fight for.

Particularly, in this year of all years, what we do here at home has real impacts around the world. If other governments believe that a country that has led the way on climate is full of hot air, it simply undermines trust and lets the big polluters off the hook. In the less than 30 days left to COP26, the prime minister must finally wake up to the fact that this is not a glorified international photo opportunity but a complex and fragile negotiation where he must deliver at home and engage in the hard yards of diplomacy.

Just over 50 years ago, Martin Luther King said of the fight for racial and economic justice: “We are now faced with the fact that tomorrow is today. We are confronted with the fierce urgency of now. In the unfolding conundrum of life and history, there is such a thing as being too late.” As the generation that stands astride the causes and consequences of this climate emergency, we must take heed of those words.

  • Nothing is more dangerous than the illusion of action


This piece was originally published by The Guardian and is reposted here with permission.


Anyone impeding climate action now has blood on their hands

Anyone impeding climate action now has blood on their hands



The wildfires currently unleashing a trail of death and destruction on Mediterranean shores are just an indication of what is to come if we do not act with far greater speed and ambition to combat global heating. Yet some still wring their hands and talk of the cost of climate action, relying on false accounting and failing to recognise that action now will be the biggest cost-saving in human history.

If our leaders make these same judgements and fail to step up at the Glasgow climate talks, they will be consigning future generations to a world that is in large parts uninhabitable, condemning them to wage war over food and water.

Wildfires in Algeria, Greece, Italy, Turkey, and now France in the last few weeks and days have seen lives lost, homes gutted, and wildlife burned alive. The ‘Lucifer’ weather system of oppressive heat reached its apex in Sicily ­at an unbearable 48.8 C – what could be Europe’s highest ever recorded temperature. This comes hot on the heels of deadly floods across Austria, Belgium and Germany.

None of this is happening in isolation. Before the extreme heat, fires and floods in Europe, there were record-breaking fires in the US, Australia and Canada. And long before the climate crisis came knocking on the doors of rich developed nations, it greatest impacts have been, and are being, felt by the world’s poorest and most vulnerable, those who have done the least to contribute to the heating of our planet.

For decades, and with a fraction of the attention and media headlines, countries in the global south have suffered the greatest impacts of climate breakdown, in a pattern of gross injustice. 99% of all deaths from weather-related disasters occur in the world’s 50 least developed countries — countries that have contributed less than 1% of global carbon emissions.

Now, the latest IPCC climate report, published just this month, warns that Earth will cross the critical the 1.5 C temperature threshold by 2030, 10 years before previously estimated. And looking at the Mediterranean now, we can see what 1C already looks like.


So, the science is unequivocal and we all have the evidence before our own eyes. Now is the time to act. Glasgow COP26 is our chance.

There are some who call for hesitancy, who talk of the cost of action. But their numbers do not add up, and this false accounting speaks of nothing but short-term interests that destabilise and endanger the wider economy.

The initial investments we need to make undoubtably involve large sums. In the UK, for instance, the Committee on Climate Change states that reaching net zero emissions by 2050 would cost just under 1% of GDP every year through to 2050. Yet, to put that into perspective, the UK’s military defence budget is currently about 2% of GDP every year.

We must not fall for the scare tactics of citing large sums of money without telling the rest of the story. Because the benefits of investment in climate action are many.

First, investing now means we avoid vast costs, not just of the damage and destruction from extreme weather, but also the need to adapt to a drastically altered climate. The money we spend today will return many times its value, but the “Bank of Nature” will charge a wholly unsustainable rate of interest if we do not pay off our debts now.

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), for instance, suggests if the climate crisis is tackled as part of structural transition, and the economic benefits of avoiding climate damages, such as increased flooding, droughts and extreme weather events are taken into account, it could add almost 5% to GDP in G20 countries by 2050.

Second, a green transition will bring a reinvigorated, revitalised jobs market. In the UK, if the government follows the advice of the Committee on Climate Change, it will generate 1.7 million green jobs this decade. Investing in clean energy alone can create 2-3 times the number of jobs gained from investing the same amount in fossil fuels, the science shows.

Med Fires 2021


I have deliberately tackled economic arguments head-on here, since they are the newest weapon to be employed by those who seek to muddy the waters, so that they can focus on their own short-term gains. But it is also vital to remember that the benefits of a transition to sustainability do not end with the economic boost it will bring.

Action now will save countless lives and prevent untold misery, it will provide a safe and prosperous world for our grandchildren, and reinvigorate our relationship with the natural world, making us happier and healthier.

We must take a whole of government, whole of economy, system-wide approach, setting clear goals for disadvantaged communities to receive their fair share of the benefits that our transformation to sustainability will bring.

It is shameful that, as industrialised nations, we have waited until our own streets are flooded, our own houses burnt down, to take the climate crisis seriously, but if we put in place ambitious policies today, we still have a chance for a just, sustainable world.

As our elected representatives prepare for climate talks in Glasgow, they should know that they have a chance to take their place in history – as heroes or villains ­– as humanity’s future hangs in the balance. The time is now.

This piece was originally published by Ecohustler and is reposted here with permission.

A global epidemic is killing millions every year – but it’s not a virus, it’s air pollution

A global epidemic is killing millions every year – but it’s not a virus, it’s air pollution

“These deaths don’t make front pages. There are no live updates. Cobra will not be convened”

How bad is this going to get? How many people will fall ill? How many are going to die? Government agencies tell us not to panic. Which is perhaps a sure-fire way to send people running for the hills.

But the science is clear. We are currently facing an epidemic that is now the leading cause of premature deaths.

In 2019, worldwide more than eight million people died as a consequence of air pollution. Globally, toxic air now kills more people than tobacco, which used to be the largest cause of premature death. In the UK this year, between 28,000 and 36,000 people will die because they are exposed to air pollution. These deaths won’t make front pages. There will be no live updates. Cobra will not be convened. 

Not so with the rapidly emerging threat from Covid-19, known as the coronavirus. Given how interconnected our global civilisation is, it was always a matter of when, not if, a new virus would emerge with the potential to produce a global pandemic. Given that a vaccine could still be a year or more away, it’s increasingly likely that we are witnessing the spread of a virus that could infect millions.

The Chinese government placed 50 million people under mandatory quarantine, cancelled public gatherings, closed schools, and used mass surveillance systems to monitor individuals. This has appeared to work, at least in the short term. The rate of new cases in China is decreasing. But it has come at considerable cost.

Factory output in China fell at a record rate in February, while car sales collapsed by 92 per cent. Some manufacturers are not making any cars in China due to supply lines grinding to a halt. We are only in the third month of 2020, but this is going to take a huge bite out of economic growth in China. That economic contagion is already spreading, with other countries downgrading growth forecasts for this year.

Nasa satellite imagery shows the difference in pollution levels around Beijing since the beginning of the coronavirus outbreak (Photo: Nasa)


It has also had a remarkable impact on air quality. Satellite images produced by Nasa have shown a sharp decline in pollution levels across China as factories stay closed and fewer vehicles were on the roads. This will produce improvements in air quality that are desperately needed. Air pollution kills more than one million people a year in China. Inadvertently, the Chinese government has possibly saved just as many lives by reducing exposure to toxic air than any one virus.

The question is, why are these measures not sustained? It shouldn’t matter if someone dies from respiratory failure due to particles of soot or a virus. The loss of life is always tragic. But coronavirus is presented to us as a new threat. A narrative of urgency is easy to produce.

The current crisis shows us that we are willing to accept quite significant changes to our lives in order to help slow down the spread of a dangerous virus. When it comes to reducing air pollution, we know that taking cars off of roads, and closing coal fired power stations would mean people will live better, longer lives.

We have the solutions. There are eight million reasons to implement them with urgency.

James Dyke is a senior lecturer in global systems at Exeter University (He writes a weekly environment column for i.)

Climate Crisis Facts

Climate Crisis Facts

It is real and it is already happening

Human-caused climate change has already been proven to increase the risk of floods and extreme rainfall, heatwaves and wildfires with implications for humans, animals and the environment.

And things aren’t looking good for the future either. With the concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere projected to maintain an average 411 parts per million (ppm) throughout 2019, there is a long way to go before the ambitious goals of the Paris Agreement are met. To put this into context: atmospheric CO2 hovered around 280 ppm before the start of the Industrial Revolution in 1750 – the 46 per cent increase since then is the main cause of global warming. Reliable temperature records began in 1850 and our world is now about one degree Celsius hotter than in the “pre-industrial” period.


The Paris Agreement focuses on keeping the global temperature rise in this century to well below two degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels – ideally to 1.5 degrees Celsius – to avoid “severe, widespread and irreversible” climate change effects. But, if current trends continue, the world is likely to pass the 1.5 degrees Celsius mark between 2030 and 2052 unless it finds a way to reach net zero emissions.

Here’s everything you need to know about where we are with the climate crisis.

1. Our summers and winters keep getting warmer

San Francisco, British Columbia and Delhi all reported all-time record June temperatures this year, suggesting heatwaves are beginning anew in the Northern Hemisphere this summer. In 2018, the UK experienced the hottest summer since 2006 and a scientific study into last year’s data showed that such heatwaves are now 30 times more likely due to climate change.

And all of this is set to become much more common. There is a 12 per cent chance of average temperatures being as high as the UK experienced last year; this compares with a less than half a per cent chance that would be expected in a climate without human-caused climate change.

But the country is not only experiencing soaring temperatures in summer. Temperatures of 21.2 degrees Celsius were recorded in London’s Kew Gardens on February 26, 2019. It was the warmest winter day the UK has ever experienced. Parts of the country were hotter than Malibu, Barcelona and Crete. Milder winters can have detrimental effects on hibernating mammals, migratory birds and flowering plants.

2. Indonesia will move its capital city as its current one is sinking

Sea levels are rising at the fastest rate in 3,000 years, an average three millimetres per year. The two major causes of sea level rise are thermal expansion – the ocean is warming and warmer water expands – and melting of glaciers and ice sheets that increases the flow of water. Antarctica and Greenland hold enough frozen water to raise global sea levels by about 65 metres if they were to melt completely. Even if this scenario is unlikely, these ice masses are already melting faster. And island nations and coastal regions are feeling the impact.

Earlier this year, Indonesia announced its plans to move the capital city away from Jakarta. Home to over ten million people, some parts of Jakarta are sinking as much as 25cm per year. Jakarta’s precarious position is thanks to a combination of two factors – rising global sea levels and land subsidence as underground water supplies have been drained away to meet water needs.

This grim picture is repeated elsewhere too. In the Pacific, at least eight islands were swallowed by the sea in the last century, with Tuvalu, Kiribati and the Marshall Islands feared to be the next low-lying nations to be wiped off the map.

3. Average wildlife populations have dropped by 60 per cent in just over 40 years

The average size of vertebrate (mammals, fish, birds and reptiles) populations declined by 60 per cent between 1970 and 2014, according to the biennial Living Planet Report published by the Zoological Society of London and the WWF. That doesn’t mean that total animal populations have declined by 60 per cent, however, as the report compares the relative decline of different animal populations. Imagine a population of ten rhinos where nine of them died; a 90 per cent population drop. Add that to a population of 1,000 sparrows where 100 of them died – a ten per cent per cent decrease. The average population decrease across these two groups would be 50 per cent even though the loss of individuals would be just 10.08 per cent.

Whatever way you stack the numbers, climate change is definitely a factor here. An international panel of scientists, backed by the UN, argues that climate change is playing an increasing role in driving species to extinction. It is thought to be the third biggest driver of biodiversity loss after changes in land and sea use and overexploitation of resources. Even under a two degrees Celsius warming scenario, five per cent of animal and plant species will be at risk from extinction. Coral reefs are particularly vulnerable to extreme warming events, their cover could be reduced to just one per cent of current levels at two degrees Celsius of warming.

4. There’s more carbon dioxide in our atmosphere than any time in human history

In May, sensors at the Mauna Loa observatory in Hawaii – which has tracked Earth’s atmospheric concentration of CO2 since the late 1950s – detected a CO2 concentration of 415.26 ppm. The last time Earth’s atmosphere contained this much CO2 was more than three million years ago, when sea levels were several metres higher and trees grew at the South Pole. Scientists have warned that carbon dioxide levels higher than 450ppm are likely to lock in catastrophic and irreversible changes in the climate. Around half of the CO2 emitted since 1750 has been in the last 40 years.

5. We will consume all of earth’s 2019 resources by July 29

Earth Overshoot Day is a symbolic date on which humanity’s consumption for the year outstrips Earth’s capacity to regenerate those resources that year. The calculated date is getting earlier each year. It is July 29 in 2019; in 1999 it was September 29. The cost of this overspending includes deforestation, soil erosion, overfishing, and CO2 build-up in the atmosphere, which leads to global warming, more severe droughts, wildfires and other extreme weather events.

6. Dengue fever could spread through much of southeastern US by 2050

Dengue is the world’s fastest-growing mosquito-borne virus, currently killing some 10,000 people and affecting around 100 million per year. As global temperatures are rising, Aedes aegypti mosquitos that carry the disease could thrive in places that were previously unsuitable for them and benefit from shorter incubation periods. A recent study published in the scientific journal Nature warned that, in a warming world, dengue could spread to the US, higher altitudes in central Mexico, inland Australia and to large coastal cities in eastern China and Japan.

7. Two-thirds of extreme weather events in the last 20 years were influenced by humans

The number of floods and heavy rains has quadrupled since 1980 and doubled since 2004. Extreme temperatures, droughts and wildfires have also more than doubled in the last 40 years. While no extreme weather event is never down to a single cause, climate scientists are increasingly exploring the human fingerprints on floods, heatwaves, droughts and storms. Carbon Brief, a UK-based website covering climate science, gathered data from 230 studies into “extreme event attribution” and found that 68 per cent of all extreme weather events studied in the last 20 years were made more likely or more severe by human-caused climate change. Heatwaves account for 43 per cent of such events, droughts make up 17 per cent and heavy rainfall or floods account for 16 per cent.

8. Carbon emissions from energy use are rising at the fastest rate since 2011

Extreme weather is driving up demand for energy. Carbon emissions from global energy use jumped two per cent in 2018, according to BP’s annual world energy study. This was the fastest growth in seven years and is roughly the carbon equivalent to increasing the number of passenger cars worldwide by a third. The unusual number of hot and cold days last year resulted in increased use of cooling and heating systems powered by natural gas and coal. The energy sector accounts for two-thirds of all carbon emissions.

9. 120,000 square kilometres of tropical forest were lost in 2018

The world’s tropical forests are shrinking at a staggering rate, the equivalent of 30 football pitches per minute. Whilst some of this loss may be attributed to natural causes such as wildfires, forest areas are primarily cleared to make way for cattle or agricultural production such as palm oil and soybeans. Deforestation contributes to global carbon emissions because trees naturally capture and lock away carbon as they grow.

When forest areas are burnt, carbon that took decades to store is immediately released back into the atmosphere. Tropical deforestation is now responsible for 11 per cent of the world’s CO2 emissions – if it were considered a country, tropical deforestation would be the third-largest emitter after China and the US.

10. The UK will likely miss its transport emissions targets

There are about 210,000 electric vehicles in the UK. Although there is a steady growth in demand, only two per cent of households own a hybrid and just one per cent have an all-electric car. The UK has set a net zero target for transport emissions meaning all cars and vans on its roads will have to be all-electric by 2050, but if the country is to stand any chance of achieving these ambitious plans, tens of millions of petrol and diesel cars will have to be replaced.

In a recent letter to the Committee on Climate Change, experts warned that, based on the latest battery technology, the UK will need to import almost as much cobalt as is consumed annually by European industry, three quarters of the world’s lithium production, nearly the entire global production of neodymium, and at least half of the world’s copper production. There are currently 31.5m cars on UK roads, covering more than 400 billion kilometres per year.


Thanks to Sabrina Weiss at Wired.co.uk for the content of this article.

Political action

Political action

The top 20 companies in the world are responsible for a staggering 35% of the total global greenhouse emissions on today.

These companies have a significant moral, financial, and legal responsibility for the climate crisis, and have an equally proportionate burden to help address the problem.

But despite this, a study earlier this year found that the largest five stock-market-listed oil and gas companies spend nearly $200m each year lobbying to delay, control or block policies to tackle climate change. (link)

But what should we all be doing? Well many of the worst offenders are investor-owned companies that are household names around the world and they spend billions of pounds portraying themselves as environmentally responsible. So the first step is to take any of their marketing with a truck load of salt. Next – get behind political campaigners. You may not be the kind of person who blocks a road with Extinction Rebellion, but consider supporting their cause with a donation, or voting for a political party who have a green manifesto.

Have a read through the work being done by Climate Accountability Institute, which focuses its work on the fossil fuel companies that, in their view, have their collective hand on the throttle are paramount in determining the rate of carbon emissions and the shift to non-carbon fuels.

But chiefly of all, try hard not believe everything you read on face value. Look into the science. Research the facts, and act responsibly by living sustainably.

Extinction: Time to Rebel!

Extinction: Time to Rebel!

” Real change will require a depth of imagination, ambition and sheer determination which humans have historically struggled to muster. “

For those of you who don’t know much about Extinction Rebellion here is a great article in the Guardian about why we all need to take the time now to stand up and “rebel” – ie push back against the structures and politicians that are failing us all.

ZIA are proud supportes of XR as well as school strikes for climate and we believe you should be too – have a read of the editorial here and see what you think.

Read the full Guardian Article

Ecological Footprint Calculator

Ecological Footprint Calculator

At ZIA we champion the need for social activism as a crucial tool in the fight against climate change. Take 5 minutes to fill out this footprint calculator and hopefully you’ll see why.

Even if each of us lived in a cave and ate only home grown veggies (the dream) each of us as member’s of our own societies still emit far too much for our planet to sustain itself – our governments emit huge amounts on our behalf.

Anyhow, the calculator is fun and really easy to use and gives you your ‘earth overshoot day’ which is a cool way of illustrating the problem – have a look and let us know what you think and when your overshoot day is…